According to The Verge, an anonymous survey of more than 300 AI insiders at the Cerebral Valley conference revealed some staggering predictions about the industry’s future. These founders, investors, and professionals expect OpenAI to hit $30 billion in annual revenue by 2026 and Nvidia to reach a $6 trillion valuation in the same timeframe. They’re betting on AGI arriving by 2030 and see Andreessen Horowitz as having the most enviable AI portfolio. The survey also revealed which private companies they’d invest in today—Anthropic, OpenAI, and Cursor topped the list—and which billion-dollar startups they’d short, with Perplexity taking the dubious honor of first place.
Bubble or breakthrough?
Here’s the thing that struck me about these numbers—they’re simultaneously wildly optimistic and deeply skeptical. The same crowd predicting $6 trillion for Nvidia and AGI within six years also thinks Perplexity is overvalued and would short OpenAI. That’s some serious cognitive dissonance. Basically, they’re betting the farm on infrastructure players like Nvidia while being deeply suspicious of application-layer companies. It reminds me of the dot-com bubble where everyone knew the infrastructure providers (Cisco, Sun Microsystems) would win regardless of which websites survived.
Talent wars intensify
The reverse acquihire trend tells you everything about where we are in the AI cycle. Big Tech companies are essentially writing blank checks to scoop up talent, with one insider describing it as having “infinite money” chasing a “finite pool of talent.” Antitrust concerns are making traditional acquisitions harder, so they’re finding creative ways to get the people they need. When corporate development teams are asking founders to name their price for talent acquisitions, you know we’re in peak frenzy mode. And honestly, who can blame them? The talent that actually understands this stuff at a deep level is incredibly scarce.
AGI is so 2023
Remember when everyone was obsessed with AGI? The survey shows how much that’s changed. Last year, founders were talking about GPT-10 killing us all—this year, it’s all about business applications and revenue. That shift is telling. The industry has moved from sci-fi speculation to practical deployment. They’re focused on winning market share and building products people will actually pay for. Which makes sense—you can’t pay your engineers with philosophical debates about consciousness. The bubble fears are there, but they’re taking a backseat to the immediate opportunity.
Where the smart money is going
The investment preferences reveal some interesting patterns. Anthropic beating OpenAI for private investment? That’s surprising given OpenAI’s revenue projections. Cursor making the top three shows developers are betting heavily on AI-powered coding tools. And the fact that Anduril and SpaceX made the list tells you defense and space are seen as major AI application areas. But the Perplexity short is what really catches my eye—the industry insiders apparently see it as the most overhyped player in the space. Ouch. You can learn more about the conference and survey at Eric Newcomer’s analysis and Alex Heath’s Sources newsletter.
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