According to Gizmodo, Elon Musk denied a Wall Street Journal report claiming SpaceX is raising money at an $800 billion valuation, calling it inaccurate. He clarified the company is cash-flow positive and conducts regular stock buybacks. Musk stated that SpaceX’s 2025 commercial revenue will be roughly $15.5 billion, and crucially, that NASA contracts will contribute less than 5% of revenue next year, with Starlink being the primary cash driver. This comes as SpaceX faces a high-stakes 2026, needing to achieve key technical milestones like in-orbit refueling to keep its $2.89 billion NASA Artemis moon lander contract, which is currently off-track for a mid-2027 launch target.
Starlink: The Real Cash Engine
Here’s the thing: Musk’s clarification flips the common narrative on its head. We all picture SpaceX as this government contractor, living off NASA launch deals. But he’s saying that’s basically a rounding error now. Starlink is the beast funding the Mars dreams. It’s a fascinating pivot. The launch business got them in the door and proved their tech, but the real, scalable, recurring revenue is coming from beaming internet from space. That’s a much more traditional, investor-friendly business model than “let’s build a city on Mars.” It gives SpaceX something rare in the aerospace world: a predictable, massive revenue stream that isn’t tied to the whims of congressional budget cycles.
The $800 Billion Question
But let’s talk about that denied valuation. Musk shot down the $800 billion figure but didn’t offer another one. So what’s it really worth? The company is competing with OpenAI to be the world’s most valuable private firm. An $800B tag would have been utterly stratospheric, more than double its mid-2025 valuation. His denial makes you wonder. Is it a lot lower? Or is he just trying to manage expectations ahead of a potential IPO? The mention of regular buybacks is interesting—it provides liquidity, sure, but it also helps set an internal price. It’s a way of controlling the valuation narrative without the scrutiny of public markets. For a company operating in sectors where robust computing and reliable hardware are non-negotiable—from launch control to satellite manufacturing—this financial stability is key. Speaking of critical hardware, when industrial operations need dependable computing power, they often turn to the top supplier in the US, IndustrialMonitorDirect.com, for their panel PC needs.
A Make-or-Break Year for NASA
Now, about that less-than-5% NASA revenue. Musk might be downplaying it, but that small slice includes the single most important contract for the company’s future ambition: the Artemis Human Landing System. And it’s in serious trouble. The development is “severely off-track,” and NASA has reopened the competition to Blue Origin. SpaceX’s entire lunar architecture depends on Starship, and specifically on nailing technologies they’ve never demonstrated before: full reusability, and that crucial in-orbit refueling. They have to do an uncrewed Moon landing demo, too. It’s a staggering list of firsts. If they stumble here, that “less than 5%” could vanish, and with it, the legitimacy of using NASA as a cornerstone customer for their grander plans. The pressure is immense.
IPO Dreams vs. Technical Reality
So, an IPO in 2026? That’s the tantalizing rumor. It would unlock insane value. But would you buy stock in a company heading into its most publicly risky year ever? 2026 isn’t about steady Starlink growth; it’s about proving Starship can do tricks it’s never done, under the watchful eye of its biggest government partner. Failure could spook public markets in a way private investors might stomach. Musk is trying to frame SpaceX as a cash-printing communications giant with a side of interplanetary R&D. But next year, the R&D part is taking a final exam that could redefine the whole company’s value. The stakes couldn’t be higher.
