According to IGN, Circana analyst Mat Piscatella shared that the top five most-played games in the US on PlayStation for 2025 were Fortnite, Call of Duty, Minecraft, Grand Theft Auto V, and Roblox. This list is identical to the top five from 2024. The Xbox chart was nearly the same, with only Minecraft and Roblox swapping places. Piscatella’s data reveals a capped post-pandemic audience where 30% of players were expected to buy zero new games in 2025, and only 16% purchase games frequently. The result is that ten live-service games now consume 40% of all console playtime, creating a market where, as Piscatella states, “The biggest competitor to any new video game is Fortnite.”
The Indictment
Here’s the thing: this isn’t just a quirky stat. It’s a damning indictment of the entire console ecosystem’s health. We had a year packed with major, anticipated releases like Death Stranding 2 and Ghost of Yōtei, and they didn’t even crack the most-played list. The conversation has completely shifted from “What’s the next big thing?” to “What’s the current thing I’m already invested in?” And that’s a brutal environment for any developer not named Epic Games or Rockstar.
Why Nothing New Sticks
Piscatella’s explanation makes perfect, depressing sense. The pandemic pulled in everyone who was ever going to game casually. That audience is now maxed out. So you have a static pool of players who are increasingly risk-averse. Games are expensive! Why drop $70 on a single-player adventure you might not like when you can hop into Fortnite for free and have a reliably fun time with friends? The economic logic for the player is clear. But for the industry? It’s a death spiral.
Think about those numbers he shared. If 7 out of 10 console players touch one of the top ten service games every month, where is the oxygen for anything else? New games are fighting for scraps—for the attention and dollars of that tiny 16% of frequent buyers. It’s no wonder we’re seeing so many studio closures and project cancellations. The business model for a traditional, premium game is collapsing under the weight of these forever games.
A Self-Fulfilling Prophecy
And this creates a vicious cycle. Publishers see these charts and get terrified. They see that only live-service games or established mega-franchises have a shot. So they greenlight more of those and cancel the riskier, mid-tier projects. That means fewer new games for that 16% to even get excited about buying, which pushes them back to the old reliables, which reinforces the charts. See the problem?
It reminds me of the movie industry’s obsession with superhero sequels. You chase the safe bet until the entire system becomes brittle and creatively bankrupt. The difference is, a movie is a two-hour commitment. A live-service game is a lifestyle. The hook is so much deeper.
Is There a Way Out?
So what’s the solution? Honestly, I don’t know if there is one from within the current console box. The platforms themselves benefit hugely from these engagement monsters. Maybe the breakthrough has to come from somewhere else entirely—from a new platform, a new business model, or a game so revolutionary it forces its way into the rotation. But looking at this data, it’s hard to be optimistic.
Piscatella’s final quote says it all. Your competitor isn’t the other new release hitting the same week. Your competitor is the game that’s already on everyone’s hard drive, is free to play, and gets updated constantly. How do you fight that? For most studios right now, the answer seems to be: you don’t. You just try to survive until the next report comes out, hoping for a miracle that the charts will finally change. Based on 2025, I wouldn’t bet on it.
