According to Forbes, bitcoin slipped below $100,000 this week for the first time since June, with Galaxy Digital’s head of research Alex Thorn declaring that “the days of 1000x, 100x, or even possibly 10x gains in BTC are probably over.” Thorn revised his year-end price target from $185,000 to $120,000, noting that more than 470,000 coins worth $50 billion held for at least five years have changed hands just this year. Morgan Stanley just allowed its advisors to pitch crypto ETFs to any client with initial allocations up to 4%, while crypto futures open interest crashed from $220 billion on October 6 to $142 billion on October 11. Meanwhile, 72 of the top 100 cryptocurrencies are down more than 50% from their all-time highs, and the hot trade of 2025 has been AI rather than bitcoin.
Bitcoin’s Silent IPO
Here’s the thing that’s really happening beneath the surface: we’re witnessing what investor Jordi Visser calls bitcoin’s “silent IPO.” It’s not literally going public, but economically it’s following the same pattern as any company IPO. Early holders who’ve been sitting on coins since bitcoin was a hobbyist experiment are finally distributing to newer, more institutional buyers. And they can do this without blowing out the market precisely because there’s enough institutional demand to absorb the supply.
Think about it – when a company goes public, you see this exact same slow, orderly handoff. Long-term insiders take profits while new owners step in. The volatility decreases. The wild swings get replaced by more predictable trading ranges. That’s exactly what we’re seeing with bitcoin right now.
Institutional Takeover
So who’s actually buying now? Pension funds and insurers – the most cautious capital on earth. Corporate treasuries are looking at bitcoin for the same reasons they hold gold: diversification and long-term stability. This is a complete reversal from five years ago when these same institutions would have dismissed bitcoin outright.
And that’s why the price action feels so different. Bitcoin used to be the high-beta expression of risk appetite. When everything else was rallying, bitcoin would rally harder. When fear hit, bitcoin would crash harder. Now? Everything else is rallying while bitcoin just… sits there. It’s confusing people who remember the old patterns.
Good Boring
But is this actually bad news? I don’t think so. Markets don’t mature with fireworks – they mature when the buyers get boring and the sellers get older. The fact that dips are met with steady ETF demand rather than panic selling is incredibly healthy. Rallies meeting counter-flow from older holders distributing at their own pace creates stability.
Basically, bitcoin is growing up. And growing up means trading parabolic charts for something more sustainable. If bitcoin is going to live in the same universe as gold and equities, this is the work it has to do. The 20% daily candles and “to the moon” chants were fun while they lasted, but they weren’t sustainable for an asset that wants to be taken seriously by institutional money.
New Market Reality
The data tells the story clearly. Retail hasn’t returned in size except for short-term memecoin speculation. Leverage took a massive hit in that October 10 wipeout. And for the first time in years, bitcoin isn’t the center of speculative attention – AI is.
Ironically, that might be exactly what allows bitcoin to settle into a more durable role. When something stops being the shiny new toy and becomes infrastructure, that’s when you know it’s here to stay. The days of 1000x gains might be over, but the days of being dismissed as a fringe asset might be over too. And honestly? That trade-off seems pretty reasonable.