According to TechRepublic, Adobe’s 2025 Holiday Shopping Trends report shows Americans spent a record $11.7 billion on Black Friday this year, up from $10.8 billion in 2024. The company forecasts the entire online holiday season (Nov. 1 to Dec. 31) will see a staggering $253.4 billion in spending, a 5.3% year-over-year increase. A massive 56.1% of that revenue is expected to come from mobile devices. In a stunning projection, traffic from AI sources like large language models to retail sites is predicted to surge 515-520% compared to last holiday season. Furthermore, spending via Buy Now, Pay Later (BNPL) options is forecast to hit $20.2 billion, growing 11%.
Mobile Is No Longer Optional
Here’s the thing: mobile isn’t just a channel anymore, it’s the channel. When Adobe says 7 in 10 retail site visits and over 56% of revenue will come from phones, that’s a line in the sand. For years, retailers could treat mobile as a secondary concern. Not in 2025. A clunky mobile site or a slow checkout process isn’t just an annoyance now—it’s a direct path to lost sales. Consumers have voted with their thumbs, and they expect a seamless experience from discovery to payment. Retailers who haven’t fully optimized for this reality are basically leaving money on the table for their competitors.
AI’s Explosive Role in Discovery
A 515% increase in AI-driven traffic? That’s not a trend, it’s a tidal wave. We’re moving past simple chatbots. Shoppers are using generative AI to brainstorm gift ideas, compare products across retailers, and build entire shopping lists. This fundamentally changes the marketing game. It’s less about blasting ads and more about being discoverable within these AI-driven searches. If an LLM doesn’t surface your product as a good recommendation, you’re invisible. The retailers integrating AI-powered personalization on their own sites are creating a powerful feedback loop. They’re not just waiting for traffic; they’re shaping the discovery journey right on their platform. The question is, how many are ready?
The New Holiday Shopping Rhythm
Black Friday and Cyber Monday are still huge, but Adobe’s data points to a major flattening of the sales curve. Deals start earlier, and shoppers, armed with price-tracking tools and that aforementioned AI, are more strategic. They’re willing to wait for the right moment, which means strong sales in early November and a final surge right before Christmas. This is a big challenge for retailers. You can’t just pour all your budget and inventory into one weekend anymore. Success requires sustained engagement and promotional agility across the entire season. It’s a marathon with a couple of intense sprints in the middle, not just a single dash.
BNPL and the Cautious Consumer
The growth of Buy Now, Pay Later to over $20 billion tells a dual story. On one hand, it’s a brilliant tool for retailers to boost conversion and average order value from budget-conscious shoppers. On the other, it’s a clear sign of continued financial pressure. People want to spend, but they’re managing cash flow meticulously. The report notes BNPL is spreading beyond just mega-sale days, becoming a consistent payment option. That’s a significant shift. But it comes with risk. Retailers pushing BNPL need to be transparent about terms. If customers feel trapped by debt, that short-term sales gain evaporates into long-term brand damage. It’s a powerful lever, but it has to be pulled responsibly.
So what’s the big picture? The 2025 holiday season, as detailed in Adobe’s report, is being shaped by a technologically empowered yet financially cautious consumer. For businesses, especially in the physical retail and industrial sectors where complex purchases happen, this digital shift is critical. Even in B2B and industrial settings, the expectation for seamless digital discovery and transaction is trickling down. The blueprint is clear: optimize relentlessly for mobile, get your products AI-discoverable, spread your promotions out, and offer payment flexibility. The retailers who adapt aren’t just chasing a trend—they’re building the foundation for how commerce will work for the next decade.
