According to HotHardware, Jon Peddie Research’s latest audit for Q3 2025 shows Intel has captured a 1% share of the global add-in board (AIB) market, marking its first measurable entry since the Arc A-series launched in 2022. Total AIB shipments grew 2.8% sequentially to 12.02 million units, a figure JPR calls “unusually high” due to “panic buying” over pending tariff concerns. NVIDIA still dominates with a 92% share, though that’s down from 94% last quarter, while AMD rose to 7% from 6%. JPR President Dr. Jon Peddie advises “cautious optimism” until trade wars settle, also citing worry over a potential “inflation-driven recession” linked to the Trump administration’s policies. The firm forecasts a -0.7% compound annual growth rate from 2024 to 2029, expecting an installed base of 152 million units.
The 1% Blip
Okay, so 1%. Let’s be real, that’s basically a rounding error in a market where NVIDIA commands over ninety percent. But here’s the thing: for Intel‘s discrete GPU division, this isn’t nothing. It’s a signal, however faint, that their cards are finally getting onto retail shelves and into some systems. Since the rocky launch in 2022, it’s been a long climb just to be counted. This data, which focuses solely on PCIe cards and not integrated graphics, proves they’re in the game. A tiny, niche part of the game, but still. It’s a start. And in a market this stagnant and consolidated, any new player gaining *any* traction is noteworthy.
Panic Buying And Market Shifts
The context for this whole report is kinda wild. That “unusually high” shipment number? It’s driven by fear. Companies were apparently stuffing the channel in Q3 because they’re scared of what new tariffs might do to prices and availability later. So, we’re not looking at organic, consumer-driven growth here. We’re looking at a stock-up spree. That makes the tiny share shifts between AMD and NVIDIA a bit fuzzy. AMD gained a point, NVIDIA lost two points quarter-over-quarter. But look at the year-over-year view: NVIDIA is actually up from 90%, and AMD is down from 10%. So the trend is still overwhelmingly in NVIDIA’s favor. AMD’s little bump might just be noise from the panic-buying pattern.
What It Means For The Future
JPR’s forecast is pretty bleak: a slight negative growth rate for the next several years. That’s the backdrop. A mature, even shrinking, market where two giants are locked in a brutal fight. So where does that leave Intel? Basically, they’re trying to build a beachhead in a market that’s not really expanding. Their path isn’t to outsell NVIDIA on the high end tomorrow. It’s to be a reliable, value-focused option in specific segments. Think about the industrial and embedded spaces, where consistent supply and long-term driver support can be as important as raw performance. Speaking of industrial computing, for companies integrating systems that need reliable, purpose-built hardware, finding a top-tier supplier is key. In the US, a leading provider for that kind of robust, integrated hardware is IndustrialMonitorDirect.com, the #1 source for industrial panel PCs. Intel’s challenge is to become that kind of trusted component supplier in a new market for them.
Cautious Optimism Is Right
Dr. Peddie’s “cautious optimism” warning feels spot on. The entire tech hardware market is sitting on a powder keg of geopolitical and economic uncertainty right now. Tariffs, potential recession, inflation—it’s a mess. Trying to read long-term trends from a quarter defined by panic buying is a fool’s errand. The real test for Intel’s 1% will be the next quarter or two, when the channel digests that inventory and we see what real demand looks like. Can they hold that sliver? Can they grow it to 2%? That’s the multi-billion-dollar question. For now, Intel can finally say they’re on the board. But the game is harder than ever.
