Spotify’s video podcast bet is paying off – but Wall Street isn’t sold

Spotify's video podcast bet is paying off - but Wall Street isn't sold - Professional coverage

According to TechCrunch, Spotify now has nearly half a million video podcasts that more than 390 million users have streamed, representing a 54% year-over-year increase. The company’s Q3 earnings showed monthly active users grew 11% to 713 million while revenue hit €4.27 billion (~$4.9 billion), beating Wall Street expectations. Time spent with video content more than doubled year-over-year, largely driven by video podcasts, with consumption increasing over 80% since the January launch of the Spotify Partner Program that lets creators monetize through audience-driven payouts. The streaming giant also announced a partnership with Netflix to distribute video podcasts starting in 2026, though investors questioned how off-platform distribution benefits Spotify. Despite reporting a €899 million (~$1 billion) net profit, the stock slipped due to concerns over mixed Q4 guidance.

Special Offer Banner

The numbers look great, but…

Here’s the thing about Spotify‘s video podcast success: the raw numbers are undeniably impressive. Half a million video shows? Nearly 400 million viewers? Those aren’t small figures by any measure. And when you see that video consumption jumped 80% since they launched their monetization program in January, it’s clear creators are responding to the financial incentives.

But I can’t help wondering how much of this growth is just Spotify shifting existing audio listeners to video formats rather than actually bringing in new users. The company says time spent with video content has doubled – but are people watching instead of listening, or are they doing both? There’s a big difference between cannibalizing your own audio audience and expanding your total user base.

The Netflix deal raises questions

Now let’s talk about that Netflix partnership. Starting in 2026, Spotify podcasts will appear on Netflix in the US and eventually other markets. On the surface, it sounds like a smart move – more distribution means more potential listeners. But the co-CEOs’ explanations feel a bit… fuzzy.

Alex Norström says it’s about making Spotify the “distribution hub” for creators, while Gustav Söderström mentions “revenue opportunities.” Neither really explains why putting content on a competing platform helps Spotify specifically. They point to the YouTube experience where awareness supposedly drove people back to Spotify – but is that really going to work with Netflix, where people are already paying for content?

<h2 id="the-ad-business-struggle-is-real”>The ad business struggle is real

What really caught my eye was Spotify admitting that 2025 will be a “transition year” for its ads business, with no growth improvement expected until the second half of 2026. That’s basically saying we’ve got another year and a half of struggling ahead in one of their key revenue streams.

They’re giving advertisers programmatic access to audio and video inventory, which sounds good in theory. But if the ad business is taking this long to turn around, how much revenue are these video podcasts actually generating versus just consuming bandwidth and storage costs? The stock market reaction suggests investors aren’t convinced the video investment is paying off yet.

Creators are winning, but is Spotify?

The Spotify Partner Program launched in January seems to be working for creators, which is great. More monetization options, audience-driven payouts – these are positive developments. But Spotify’s philosophy of “when the creator wins, we win” only holds true if the company actually wins too.

Right now, it feels like Spotify is spending heavily to become the everything platform for audio and video creators while Wall Street remains skeptical about when this investment will translate into sustainable profits. The video podcast numbers are growing fast, but the market wants to see that growth turning into reliable revenue streams beyond just user counts and engagement metrics.

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *