According to The Economist, Pakistan has become the world’s second largest importer of solar panels, with imports of Chinese-made panels increasing almost fivefold to 16 gigawatts between 2022 and 2024. In the first nine months of 2025 alone, Pakistan imported another 16 gigawatts, with cumulative solar imports expected to match the national power system’s installed capacity by year’s end. The rapid adoption has caused grid power consumption to drop by around 12%, creating a “utility death spiral” where falling utility revenues push up bills for remaining customers, prompting more solar adoption. Pakistan’s energy minister Awais Leghari has begun negotiations with China to restructure coal-fired project agreements while seeking expertise for grid modernization, as analysts describe Pakistan as a crucial test case for green-energy transitions in the global south.
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The Geopolitical Stakes of Energy Transitions
Pakistan’s solar revolution represents more than just an energy transition—it’s becoming a geopolitical laboratory where China’s ambitions as a global green leader face their most significant test. The rapid adoption of Chinese solar technology has created an unexpected consequence: it’s undermining the very coal infrastructure China previously built through its Belt and Road Initiative. This puts Beijing in a delicate position where its export interests in green technology directly conflict with its existing fossil fuel investments. How China navigates this contradiction will set precedents for dozens of other developing nations watching Pakistan’s experience closely.
The Inevitable Utility Death Spiral
What Pakistan is experiencing represents a textbook case of utility disruption that will likely spread across emerging markets. As solar panel and battery storage costs continue declining—according to International Energy Agency projections—the economic logic becomes irresistible for consumers facing unreliable grids and high electricity costs. The 12% drop in grid consumption Pakistan has experienced is just the beginning; as battery adoption increases, this decline will accelerate, creating a feedback loop that makes traditional utility business models increasingly untenable. This pattern will likely repeat across South Asia, Africa, and Latin America where similar grid reliability issues and favorable solar conditions exist.
The Coming Manufacturing Migration
The $200 billion in promised Chinese green-tech investment in other countries since 2022, as noted by Johns Hopkins researchers, signals a strategic shift that will reshape global supply chains. Rather than simply exporting finished panels, Chinese manufacturers are increasingly establishing production facilities in target markets to circumvent tariffs and build local political support. This manufacturing migration represents the next phase of China’s green export strategy—moving from product exports to technology and capital exports. For countries like Pakistan, this offers opportunity but also creates dependency on Chinese manufacturing expertise and standards.
The Grid Modernization Imperative
Pakistan’s experience highlights the critical challenge that most analyses overlook: distributed solar adoption without corresponding grid modernization creates systemic instability. The rapid influx of intermittent solar generation strains existing grid infrastructure designed for centralized power delivery. As Griffith University research indicates, China’s $11.8 billion in green-energy Belt and Road investments represents a start, but falls far short of what’s needed to help countries manage this transition. The real test will be whether China can export not just panels but the sophisticated grid management systems and market designs needed to integrate high levels of distributed generation.
What Comes Next for Global South Energy
Looking ahead 12-24 months, we’ll see three key developments emerge from Pakistan’s experience. First, expect more countries to implement smart tariffs and grid modernization programs rather than simple import taxes, which have proven ineffective at slowing solar adoption. Second, Chinese manufacturers will accelerate local production partnerships in key markets to maintain market access amid growing protectionism. Third, we’ll see the emergence of new financing models for battery storage and grid upgrades as the limitations of current approaches become apparent. Pakistan’s solar revolution isn’t just changing its energy mix—it’s writing the playbook for how developing nations will navigate their clean energy transitions in the coming decade.
