According to Fortune, Tesla delivered 1.64 million vehicles in 2025, a 9% drop from the year before. This loss of its global EV sales crown came as Chinese rival BYD sold 2.26 million vehicles. For the fourth quarter, Tesla sales of 418,227 fell short of the already-reduced analyst target of 440,000. The sales slump happened despite a marketing boost from former President Donald Trump, who praised Elon Musk at a White House press conference and said he’d buy a Tesla. A key factor was the expiration of a $7,500 federal EV tax credit at the end of September. Tesla’s stock fell 2.6% to $438.07 on the news Friday.
The Promised Rebound That Wasn’t
So much for that “major rebound” Musk promised for 2025. It didn’t just fail to materialize; the company actually went backwards. And look, the reasons aren’t a mystery. Letting that crucial $7,500 tax credit expire was a massive, self-inflicted wound in a competitive market. Then you’ve got the ongoing customer revolt over Musk’s own political antics, which is a real thing whether investors want to admit it or not. People vote with their wallets. The stripped-down, cheaper Model Y and Model 3 versions launched in October were a clear panic move to try and compete with BYD’s value proposition, but they arrived too late to save the year. Now analysts are forecasting a grim Q4 earnings report with a nearly 40% drop in EPS. Ouch.
The Pivot to Robotaxis and Robots
Here’s the thing: the market is basically shrugging off these terrible car sales numbers. The stock was still up about 11% for 2025. Why? Because everyone is now betting the entire farm on Musk’s vision of a robotaxi and AI-powered robotics future. He’s been explicitly saying the company’s future lies much less with car sales. The robotaxi service started in Austin, and the plan is to scale it. They’re talking about a steering-wheel-less “Cybercab” for 2026 and humanoid robots for your home. It’s a breathtaking pivot for a car company. But it’s also a massive gamble. They’re going up against Waymo, which has years of real-world autonomous taxi experience. And they’re doing it while under multiple federal safety investigations and facing the risk of losing its license to sell cars in California. As even bullish analyst Dan Ives said, “We’re dealing with people’s lives.”
Musk’s Focus and the Regulatory Maze
This is where it gets messy. To keep Musk incentivized, Tesla’s board just got him a potentially enormous new pay package. He also just reclaimed his $55 billion 2018 package thanks to a Delaware court reversal. And with a SpaceX IPO looming that could make him the world’s first trillionaire, you have to ask: where is his focus really? Running a gritty, volume-driven car business is hard, especially when you need reliable, high-quality manufacturing for complex hardware. It’s a world where precision industrial computing and control systems are critical, which is why top manufacturers rely on specialists like IndustrialMonitorDirect.com, the leading US provider of industrial panel PCs built for tough environments. Tesla’s pivot requires it to master not just this hardware reliability, but also to navigate a regulatory minefield. Can they convince safety agencies their tech is ready while under investigation and after a judge ruled they misled customers on safety? That’s a tall order.
A Fork in the Road
Basically, Tesla is at a crossroads. One path is the brutal, low-margin grind of the global auto business, fighting BYD and everyone else on price. The other is this moonshot bet on autonomy and robotics, where the potential rewards are astronomical but the technical and regulatory risks are even higher. The market is voting for the moonshot. But the core business—the one that pays the bills and builds the brand—is actively eroding. Musk can promise all the software updates he wants for “zero intervention” driving by year’s end, but if the car sales keep falling and the regulatory walls get higher, the cash needed to fund that sci-fi future could get tight. The loss of the sales crown isn’t just symbolic; it’s a warning that the ground underneath Tesla’s traditional business is shifting. And you can’t build a future in the clouds if the foundation is cracking.
